Eyewitness NewsNEW YORK (WABC) -- It's another nice, dry day for the mid-Atlantic region and for most of the Northeast Tuesday. While we continue to keep a watchful eye on a storm that continues to spin off the New England Coast, it should produce most of its clouds and scattered showers in eastern New England. It isn't entirely out of the question that some of these could push as far south and west as central or eastern Long Island, but that wouldn't occur until later this afternoon or this evening. The tendency for this storm at sea to wobble a bit to the west, and for the pressure gradient to tighten a bit along the coast, will cause a gusty breeze to develop this afternoon. The farther inland you go, the lesser the effect it will have.
Generally speaking, a northerly wind will average 8-16 mph, but with gusts of up to 25 mph possible near the coast. Temperatures this afternoon should peak in the 60s in many coastal areas, but in the lower or middle-70s farther inland, including most of the big cities located near I-95.
While the body of low pressure in the Atlantic will remain offshore, there's also some shower and thunderstorm activity in the Plains states that'll be occurring today. As we pointed out yesterday, a high pressure system that is wedged in between these two areas of unsettled weather is responsible for the dry, sun-drenched pattern that most of the region is getting. We also pointed out yesterday that a couple of showers and thunderstorms will probably flare up in the Ohio Valley and the central or southern Appalachians this afternoon and again tomorrow.
There are two reasons for this: 1.) Upper-level winds associated with the blocking pattern that is in place will take whatever radar echoes exist in the Great Lakes and push them to the south-southeast, and 2.) There's a weak front which extends from a low pressure system in south-central Canada, which runs all the way to the western Carolinas early today.
So, this will be a zone where winds will converge, and unevenly distributed heating over some of the higher terrain will help create a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday night or early Thursday, some of this activity may sneak into western Pennsylvania, or the panhandle regions of western Maryland or in northern West Virginia, but that's about as far north and east as we see it drifting.
Temperatures for both tomorrow and Thursday appear as if they will be rather comparable to today's - minor fluctuations show it slightly cooler tomorrow and then warmer again on Thursday in Central Park. While coastal communities again appear as if they will be slightly cooler than those farther inland because of a marine influence, most highs will be in the upper-60s or the 70s each day.
It remains to been seen exactly when a couple of showers will return to areas east of the Appalachians. We continue to address this possibility for later on Friday or Friday night, although both the U.S. and Canadian versions of the medium-range global forecast model aren't in any hurry to print out much rain by the end of the week. For example, quantitative precipitation totals extracted from last evening's raw data taken from the G.F.S. is calling for just 0.01" late on Friday afternoon in Philadelphia, but there's absolutely NOTHING showing up in New York City, or in the various hourly reporting stations located in New Jersey.
We think its pretty safe to say that the process in which the weather will deteriorate around here very late this week (or, over the weekend) will be a very slow one. The surface map by early Saturday morning will be showing that the storm located offshore will finally begin to drift to the east, but there will still be a bubble of high pressure located over eastern New England. And, a similar, slow-moving low pressure system located in lower Michigan or northern Indiana will be in no hurry to push eastward. But once the pattern does change, the challenge will then become to figure out just how many consecutive days we'll have to allow for showers and/or thunderstorms in the long-range forecast. That number could at least be four, or five -- and it may carry us through a good part of next week (May 16th-20th).
Have a great day!!!
METEOROLOGIST BILL EVANS
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